2020 Democratic Primary Prediction + Endorsement

“Pretty mediocre photographic fakery. They cut off your brother’s hair.” — Back to the Future
  1. That data is constantly changing.
  2. The earlier your prediction, the more impressive.
  1. Energize your base.
  2. Go for the crossover and play for the middle.
How to Tank Your Campaign.

Stacey’s Nom Has Got it Goin’ On

That said, I think Stacey Abrams, the almost-Governor of Georgia, is a better VP pick. I had coffee with a 21-year-old college student who summed up all I was trying to say about Harris: “She was Attorney General… she may be too conservative… she locked up a lot of people.” His summary was three words: “She’s a cop.” Yep, that’s it. She’s a cop. (I should have him edit my posts.) Harris is too law-and-order for the Woke Left. And do you really think the American people are going to go for a fiery black woman from California? At the bottom of the ticket, sure. But not at the top. So, Stacey Abrams is the Democrats’ ace in the hole. She would bring just about any white candidate over the finish line. But I think Biden goes with Harris, perhaps only because she’s more familiar to him. When’s the last time your Grampa ordered a new dish at the Cheesecake Factory? I’M SAYING MY DUDE IS ANCIENT.

THE RESTORER: JOE BIDEN

OK, so on that: I don’t think it’s necessarily bad that the Diversity Party selects somebody who’s old, straight, cis, white, or male. But all of those things? It does feel a bit tone-deaf in 2020. The bigger problem with Biden is the first one in that list. Do I think every 78-year-old is too up in age to run the country? No. Many Presidents, Senators, and Governors, due to good genes and (probably more importantly) access to the world’s best health care, live well into their 90s. But Biden looks out of it, confused, and behind the times. Bluntly, he looks like he’s physically going to collapse. Back in 2016, there were videos — actual, not doctored — of Hillary Clinton’s climb into a car, appearing drunk and tired. Well, Biden doesn’t need to get drunk. As it is, he looks like he’s fixin’ to keel over. And honestly, that’s what I think will happen if he’s the nominee. He’ll literally pull a Gerald Ford and fall down.

Chase Gets Caught.
Hell, let’s put all of our money on Black.

THE REVOLUTIONARY: BERNIE SANDERS

Here’s a very serious question I have for White America: Do you see Donald Trump as Captain Sully on the plane or as the quartet on the Titanic?

Not to Sully His Image.
  1. Anyone but Trump.
  2. He’ll be able to get so few of his proposals passed in pure form that what he does eke through will be more palatable to me.
  3. After such an extreme slant to the right, an extreme slant to the left would be a play back to the middle.
We’ll Never Be Royals. (Oh, Lorde.)
Get It Now? Yo-Semite!

THE REFORMER: ELIZABETH WARREN

Which Democratic candidate has the biggest base? It would seem to be Biden by a long shot. But what about between Bernie or Liz? The former pulls more white working class voters but the latter may stack up more suburban Moms. I like Elizabeth Warren. She’s clearly very intelligent when it comes to policy. It’s just that she’s not so sharp when it comes to politics. Of course, I’ll take substance over style, but as it’s been said, what it takes to get to the White House and what it takes to be successful in the White House are two different skill sets (CLEARLY). Warren fell hard for the Pocahontas label, taking that idiotic DNA test. And let’s be honest: her claim of being Native American is, on its face, offensive. I do think saying you can’t listen to her talk for four years is tinged with sexism, but I’ll say this: I can’t listen to her talk for four years*. And that’s a shame, because I actually think her words are far more relatable than one initially thinks. She gave a great analogy about why Amazon shouldn’t be allowed to operate a platform and also manufacture products for its own platform. She said that, in baseball, you can either be an umpire or a player but not both. Wow. That’s an extremely easy-to-understand and accessible way of putting it that the average American can grasp. But I had a feeling she was doomed when somebody said this to me: “She just sounds like an old, female college professor.” You know who said that to me? An old, female college professor. At a gig I did in San Francisco. In fact, those were the words she used to describe Warren — and herself. At first, it’s ironic. But then you realize it’s not: takes one to know one. She knew the battles she faced her entire career as a female in higher education and she knew all too well that America wouldn’t go for her.

Even Less Sturdy Than Gerald.
Let’s See How Joaquin’s Does This Sunday. The Other Joker Just Won the Australian Open.

THE REALIST: AMY KLOBUCHAR

*While I did say that Warren would be tough to take for four years, you know who wouldn’t be? Amy Klobuchar. Despite the reports of how she treats her staff (which may be unfairly emphasized as it’s probably no worse than some men treat theirs), I really like her. She’s just so darned FOLKSY. I can picture her at the county fair, telling corny jokes and ruffling kids’ hair. She’s a PTA Mom. Suburban women would flock to her. She’d be a tough one to beat and I’d enthusiastically support a moderate like her, someone who can win by double digits in Trump districts. I know The New York Times endorsed her (whatever that asset — or liability — may be worth to voters), but the reason I won’t is because she doesn’t seem to be catching on. That may sound like a copout but support matters. Do I think she and her equivalent, Cory Booker, could win? (Why is he her equivalent? They’re both pretty darned unexciting.) Yes. I think this is a solid ticket that would do very well. They’re just tough to hate. They come across as nice and likable and reasonable. I’d jump up and down if this were the ticket, but I don’t see it happening. I think that if Biden collapses, the middle-of-the-road candidate that gets the boost is not Klobuchar but Michael Bloomberg.

THE RIGHT ANSWER: PETE BUTTIGIEG

Which all brings me to Mayor Pete. Yes, he’s young, gay, and the executive of a small town, and these points may be enough to sink him. Then again, young leaders are blossoming all around the world. Emmanuel Macron took office in France at 40. Nayib Bukele in El Salvador at 38. Jacina Ardern in New Zealand at 37. Sanna Marin in Finland at 34. How do I know all of this? Well, Please Give $5 to Keep Wikipedia Alive. Yes, the United States is vastly larger, but Pete would be in good global company.

“Sugar Ray Can Eat Here on the HOUSE.”
You May Run Like Hays…

THE RICH GUY: TOM STEYER

Get real.

THE REST

“Got a machinehead… it’s better than the rest.” — Bush

“I know he can GET the job, but can he DO the job?”
Unless you count this.

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